Lower monthly mortgage and credit card payments may be coming soon for some borrowers, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 10 years, Wells Fargo economists and investment strategists say.
On July 31, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee voted to reduce the federal funds target rate, for the first time since December 2008, from an upper target of 2.50% to 2.25%. This is the rate banks charge each other for loans overnight from their reserve balances, and which, in turn, influences the prime lending rate.
The reduced rate could mean lower payments for those with credit cards, mortgages, and loans with variable interest rates, but could have little to no impact for borrowers with loans or credit cards pegged to fixed interest rates, said Tim Quinlan, senior economist for Wells Fargo Securities. For savers, he said, reductions mean less interest earned on cash held in certificates of deposit, money market accounts, and regular savings accounts.
The potential good news for borrowers comes with a word of caution: The rate cut — and its impact to rate-sensitive products — might also spur less economic growth than previous cuts, Wells Fargo professionals say.
“Why cut rates now, when unemployment is at a near-record low, consumer spending is already strong, and the stock market at a near-record high? The simple answer is that the global economy is showing signs of serious strain amid the ongoing trade war, and inflation has been too low for too long,” Quinlan said.
Rate cut strategy and risks
Fed policymaking seeks to keep inflation low and stable and foster an economy with maximum employment, said Luis Alvarado, an investment strategy analyst for Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“Overall, what the Fed is trying to do is to bolster the strength of the economy and to keep it humming for a longer period of time,” Alvarado said.
This latest rate cut comes after nine consecutive increases — between Dec. 17, 2015, and Dec. 19, 2018 — a period where the rate has gone from 0.25% to 2.5%. The move also comes amid international trade tensions and slowing global growth, and when its preferred inflation barometer, the Core PCE deflator — which measures increases in prices consumers pay for goods and services, except highly volatile food and energy, to flag inflation trends — is at a near record low (just 1.6% in May).
“During the dot-com boom and subsequent bust from 1994 to 2000, there were questions about whether the Fed had some culpability in inflating the bubble in tech stocks by not tightening faster to rein in the ‘irrational exuberance’ evident at the time,” Quinlan said.
Rate cuts often have another byproduct — higher consumer spending. That might not happen this time around, Quinlan said, since consumer spending already is strong.
The rate cut strategy also brings potential risks because inflation rates are so low, he added.
“It hinders the Fed’s ability to cut real (inflation-adjusted) rates to deal with the next recession,” Quinlan said.
With the first Fed cut in years coming after so many increases, Alvarado said a single cut might not move the market significantly, and could contribute to market volatility.
“Our expectation is that the Fed could hint at another rate cut in the coming months, and the markets could be choppy ahead during this adjustment period,” Alvarado said.
8 ways the rate cut could affect investors
Lower mortgage and credit card payments. Consumers with adjustable-rate mortgages or credit card debt tied to variable rates may find themselves with more money to spend, Quinlan said, though this rate reduction’s impact may be more muted than the financial crisis of 2008.
Little relief for student and auto loans. The Fed’s action offers little relief for borrowers with the student and auto loans that account for nearly all of the increase in household debt, Quinlan said. That’s because most of those loans have fixed rates.
Favorable borrowing terms. “Rate cuts are viewed as a catalyst for growth, and lower rates allow for more financial flexibility and more favorable borrowing terms,” said Jennifer Kane, a financial advisor with Wells Fargo Advisors in Houston.
Strong stock performance. “Historically, stocks have performed well in an environment where the Fed is cutting rates,” Kane said. “I believe the health care sector is one that may outperform in the subsequent months, in part due to their higher dividend payout on average.”
Potentially more benefits for growth stocks than value stocks. “Growth stocks typically get their value from cash flows that might happen in the distant future, and when rates decline, their values can go up,” said Kirk Hartman, president and global chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Asset Management. “They can also benefit if investors perceive that a rate cut by the Fed is more about extending the economic expansion than about cushioning an economic downturn. As a result, we expect that rate cuts could put a little wind in the sails of the shares of growth stocks.”
A boost for tech stocks. Good examples of growth stocks that may benefit, Hartman said, include technology stocks and “‘asset-lite’ companies, which have fewer physical assets and can, therefore, scale more rapidly, taking maximum advantage of the reduced cost of capital.”
Impacts on savings. Given the impact to interest that typically follows within a month of a Fed rate cut, Kane said, those “with money in savings, money market, and other accounts could consider moving their cash ahead of those changes into savings vehicles offering a fixed yield to maturity, like certificates of deposit.” Each type of cash alternatives has advantages and disadvantages which should be discussed with a financial advisor before investing.
Business as usual for investors. Instead of focusing on short-term market and interest-rate movements, Alvarado said, Wells Fargo Investment Institute continues to favor the long view, including the wisdom of a diversified portfolio and “to monitor portfolios for opportunities to rebalance.”
All investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. There is no assurance any investment strategy will be successful or will meet its investment objectives. Investments fluctuate with changes in market and economic conditions and in different environments due to numerous factors, some of which may be unpredictable. Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics.
Stocks may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks and there is no guarantee growth will be realized. There are no guarantees that value stocks will increase in value or that their intrinsic values will eventually be recognized by the overall market. Both growth and value types of investing tend to shift in and out of favor.
Diversification cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns and does not guarantee profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Generally, certificates of deposit may not be withdrawn prior to maturity. CDs are FDIC insured up to $250,000 per depositor per insured depository institution for each account ownership category.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII) is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.
Opinions represent WFII’s opinion as of the date of this report and are for general information purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. WFII does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report.
The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor.
This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon.
Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, a division within the Wells Fargo & Company enterprise, provides financial products and services through bank and brokerage affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. Brokerage products and services offered through Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC, a registered broker-dealer and non-bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. Bank products are offered through Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.
Wells Fargo Securities is the trade name for the capital markets and investment banking services of Wells Fargo & Company and its subsidiaries, including Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. is a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.
Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors.
Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.
The Wells Fargo Advisors associate referenced is registered with Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC.
Wells Fargo Asset Management (WFAM) is the trade name for certain investment advisory/management firms owned by Wells Fargo & Company. These firms include but are not limited to Wells Capital Management Incorporated and Wells Fargo Funds Management, LLC. Certain products managed by WFAM entities are distributed by Wells Fargo Funds Distributor, LLC (a broker-dealer and Member FINRA).
This material is for general informational and educational purposes only and is NOT intended to provide investment advice or a recommendation of any kind—including a recommendation for any specific investment, strategy, or plan. 405057 07-19 0719-04317